The interest rate set by the bank of England. by the end of the year 2023 or sooner
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Yield curves are super flat now, markets really aren't pricing a hike.
@Noit The futures markets don't seem to give much time resolution. When is that peak priced for? To get to 5.5% in 2023 would require hikes at 4 of the remaining 5 meetings of the year. 3 hikes and two holds and this market resolves NO, even if there is a subsequent higher peak.
@chrisjbillington I think the most likely route to 5.5% would be if the inflation rate doesn’t come down and we see a rise in each of the next four meetings.
I’d be more surprised to see a stop-and-go approach getting us to 5.5%. If the situation with inflation is bad enough to need to raise rates that high then I don’t think they’ll want to seem weak by skipping a session.
I could be wrong though - it’ll be interesting to find out!
@SimonGrayson Update: 5.75% would be predicted for early 2024. 5.5% potentially around November but does make me wonder if I have been too bullish here.