Will an LLM have a context window of 20M or more in 2024?
Plus
30
Ṁ3143Jan 1
23%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves to Yes on or before Dec 31, 2024 if a widely available LLM in LMSYS Chatbot Arena Top 15 overall has a widely available context window of 20 million tokens or more. This can be via API, open source, web, app or other interface.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
What will be the maximum context length of any OpenAI LLM by EOY 2024?
Which company will have the best LLM by the end of 2024?
Will another LLM prompting challenge with prizes worth $10k+ be completed by the end of 2024?
54% chance
Will the best LLM in 2024 have <1 trillion parameters?
30% chance
Will I write an academic paper using an LLM by 2030?
65% chance
At the end of 2024, what type of LLM prompt will be the most popularized?
Will an LLM improve its own ability along some important metric well beyond the best trained LLMs before 2026?
58% chance
Will the best LLM in 2025 have <1 trillion parameters?
38% chance
Will the best LLM in 2027 have <1 trillion parameters?
28% chance
Will the best LLM in 2024 have <500 billion parameters?
15% chance