Will an LLM have a context window of 20M or more in 2024?
32
1kṀ4958
resolved Jan 2
Resolved
NO

Resolves to Yes on or before Dec 31, 2024 if a widely available LLM in LMSYS Chatbot Arena Top 15 overall has a widely available context window of 20 million tokens or more. This can be via API, open source, web, app or other interface.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ1,235
2Ṁ137
3Ṁ94
4Ṁ92
5Ṁ48
Sort by:

The largest I could find in the top 15 is Gemini 2 with a 2 million token window. So I think this is a No, unless somebody else found one with a larger window.

bought Ṁ30 YES

Might depend on the definition of "context window"

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules