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This market may be closed..... but this one is still very much in play pending a statement from the US military or Travis confirming he defected 2 months ago.

Did Travis T. King Defect to North Korea?

82% chance. This market will close YES if a reputable publication confirms King defected to North Korea (AKA, I won't take any statement by North Korea without confirmation). This market will close NO if it is confirmed King is/was being detained and still holds allegience to the USA. TLDR: King was finishing a detention for various events (assaulting a guy at a club, destruction of public goods, etc.) King was about to board a plane to go back to the US to join up with his unit there. Instead of getting on the plane to go HOME, he said he forgot his passport, and ran away. He then crossed the border. Neither his mother nor the any authorities know King's motives. Publications: https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/us-soldier-who-crossed-north-korea-what-happened-border-2023-07-19/ https://www.newsweek.com/who-travis-king-us-soldier-who-defected-north-korea-1813862 Related Market: (https://manifold.markets/embed/Haws/will-the-us-soldier-that-crossed-in?r=SGF3cw)

https://www.reuters.com/world/north-korea-expel-travis-king-over-illegal-border-crossing-kcna-2023-09-27/

US soldier Travis King in US custody after expulsion from North Korea to China

Private Travis King, the U.S. soldier who ran into North Korea in July, is in U.S. custody after being expelled by North Korea into China, U.S. officials said on Wednesday.

he is in US custody

@Haws Guess this can be resolved now as from Reuters

@ben @Haws CNN has it too.

https://www.reuters.com/world/north-korea-expel-travis-king-over-illegal-border-crossing-kcna-2023-09-27/

Travis King: North Korea to expel US soldier over illegal border crossing

North Korea has decided to expel American soldier Travis King who it said has admitted to illegal intrusion into the country and was "disillusioned about unequal U.S. society," state media KCNA said on Wednesday.

Related question that resolves based on whether he returns to the US, regardless of the reasons or whether he is detained:

https://nypost.com/2023/08/15/north-korea-confirms-us-army-defector-travis-king-is-in-country-said-soldier-wants-refuge-from-mistreatment-racism/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=nypost

North Korea confirms US Army defector Travis King is in country; said soldier wants refuge from ‘mistreatment,’ racism

North Korea finally confirmed Tuesday that US soldier Travis King is being detained in the country -- nearly a month after he bolted across the border.

@Haws this market may resolve as NA as stated in the comments

https://www.reuters.com/world/us-declines-invoke-prisoner-war-status-travis-king-2023-08-04/

Exclusive: US declines to invoke prisoner of war status for Travis King

Factors including the 23-year-old's decision to cross into North Korea of his own free will, in civilian attire, may have disqualified him from that status.

No response from North Korea to the UN command attempting to return Travis.

5 days ago. No new updates.

PS. His dad thinks he may have been drunk at the time.

Travis King update: UN Command in talks w/ North Korea about detained US soldier who crossed border

The American-led U.N. Command said Monday it has started a conversation with North Korea about a U.S. soldier who ran into the North last week across one of…

This story gets weird AF.

TLDR:

• King was finishing a detention for various events (assaulting a guy at a club, destruction of public goods, etc.)

• King was about to board a plane to go back to the US to join up with his unit there.

• Instead of getting on the plane to go HOME, he said he forgot his passport, and ran away.

• He then crossed the border. Neither his mother nor the any authorities know King's motives.

  https://www.newsweek.com/who-travis-king-us-soldier-who-defected-north-korea-1813862

  https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/us-soldier-who-crossed-north-korea-what-happened-border-2023-07-19/
  

IF King is in North Korea and defects (as in he is not being held against his will and North Korea accepts him as a defector), then it does not meet either the YES or NO criteria (Yes because he wouldn't be released to US or SK authorities, and No because he wouldn't be "held" by NK). If this unlikely outcome happens, this market resolves as N/A.


I've created a supplementary question to hedge your bets on: