Skip to main content
MANIFOLD
Will the S&P 500 close higher on August 31 than it closed on August 30?
39
Ṁ750Ṁ6.7k
resolved Aug 31
Resolved
NO

Closes 2pm EDT. NYSE closes 4pm EDT.

Resolves according to the display at https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP at the end of the day.


This market is part of the S&P Forecasting tournament for the month of August (Inspired by Goode). At the end of the month top traders are eligible for a prize.

Rank---Award
1      1500
2      1000
3      750

Good luck forecasting!

Note: Keeping this market as similar to how Alex has been running it. Not trying to change what people are enjoying trading on.


Trading in this market counts towards the ▲ SirCryptomind ▲ Crypto & Stock ▲ leaderboard.

Market context
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#TraderTotal profit
1Ṁ1,362
2Ṁ209
3Ṁ161
4Ṁ61
5Ṁ60
Sort by:
predictedNO

Our winners are:

  1. @TeddyWeverka

  2. @ScipioFabius (out of nowhere)

  3. @SirCryptomind (last seasons winner)

Managrams are incoming, congrats and thanks for participating in the league!

predictedNO

@Haws Glad to finally make it on the top!

predictedNO

@ScipioFabius big bets give big rewards

predictedNO

@Haws and big losses. But you know, I was hovering somewhere around 5th or 5th place for the better half of August, these two days have been a bit volatile :P

predictedNO

Waiting for the leaderboard to update. I'll announce winners soon ish.

predictedNO

The NO minority wins! 4,507.66

predictedNO

A nail biter. It is within pennies of yesterdays close.

predictedNO

@TeddyWeverka Salvation, it came down to the last 10 minutes.

predictedNO

@ScipioFabius You nailed it! By my calculations, you are in the Top Trader winning top 3. If I worked it right, I put enough on NO to stay ahead without risking falling below Cryptomind should this not have resolved NO. You made that window pretty small.

predictedNO

@TeddyWeverka I actually dont know if I made it, because I think yesterdays bet sent me into the negative? But yeah, I bet it was pretty uncomfortable for you here :D I saw you scalping profits while the market was open. The most ironic part is that this will not be enough to keep me from demoting in my league :P

predictedNO

@ScipioFabius @SirCryptomind Yes. Taking some profits and also keeping some skin in the game was the only way to beat SirCryptomind had it resolved YES and also keep your winnings from passing my own on the NO resolution. I had a spreadsheet entering your investments and figuring your estimated profits. I will be out of the competition the latter half of September, since there is no internet connectivity on the John Muir Trail. Good luck to you all.

predictedNO

@TeddyWeverka Damn, some commitment with the spreadsheet there! Good luck on the trail!

ohhhhh, closes at 2, market closes at 4

I have no idea how I'm surviving out here with this level of reading comprehension.

predictedYES

@HastingsGreer I feel educated

Literally dancing with the devil out here

@ScipioFabius Nice work. If it pays off, you'll get second place in the Top Traders bonus!

predictedNO

come on lil guy! drop drop drop!

I am still learning from this market.

just lost my whole bet on ftse in a blink of a sec. so not again plzz 😂

Gambling everything here for a 50-50 shot at moving up a slot in my league lol

#nonlinear utility

predictedNO

Could not even pretend to have an opinion on the underlying probability, just needed something liquid, 50 50, and closing fast

Yes... chaos... I love it

@Haws same thought.

@Haws Might finaly make a hayday

predictedNO

@ScipioFabius lets see how sp500 behaves depending on the ftse loss. maybe it won't give a f 🥂

predictedNO

@zedmelody Its going to be close