26% chance. If Israel declares war on Hezbollah and not Lebanon, this market still resolves YES. IE. If Israel declares war on Hezbollah, it still counts as war against Lebanon. Considering Hezbollah is almost the defacto military and one of the most prominant political parties in Lebanon. Resolution will happen if either side declares war or performs wartime military action. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/8/9/israel-threatens-to-return-lebanon-to-stone-age-in-any-war-with-hezbollah PSA: I am commited to provide the best and fairest resolution possible based on my resolution criteria. While I do support creators betting in their own markets, considering the ongoing conflict and potential ambiguity of the situation in Israel, I have chosen to sell off my position. As I mentioned multiple times, my resolution will be unbiased and based on the facts. I have donated 10k M to a charity(https://manifold.markets/charity/against-malaria-foundation) to show my commitment to a fair resolution. I encourage you to do the same. Enjoy the trades.