The 1996 local elections in the United Kingdom suggested a slight improvement in Conservative fortunes compared to 1995 (with there being a 4% swing from Lab to Con), the question is will the Conservatives do better or worse than 1996 in 2024.
The question will resolve as YES, if the swing from Lab to Con compared to 2023 is less than 4% (Lab lead over Con in national projected vote share is greater than 1%) and NO if the swing is greater than 4% (Con and Lab tied, or Con lead)
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ34 | |
| 2 | Ṁ14 | |
| 3 | Ṁ11 | |
| 4 | Ṁ5 | |
| 5 | Ṁ2 |
The national projected vote share change from 1995 to 1996 was: Con +4%, Lab -4%, therefore in order to this to resolve as YES, the Conservative change from 2023 to 2024 had to be lower than +4%. The BBC national projected vote share for 2024 has just been published (Lab 34%, Con 25%, Lib Dem 17%, Others 24%) and when compared to 2023, it shows that Con -1%, Lab -1%, Lib Dem -3%, Others +5%, so therefore this question shall resolve as YES.