Resolves as YES if at the end of 2023, the number of murders committed in Chicago is less than the number of murders committed in Chicago during 2022.
The question will be decided using official statistics from one or more of these institutions: the Chicago Police Department, the US Department of Justice, or the FBI.
Oct 6, 9:58pm:
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Through Q1, it's down ~4% YoY (121 CY vs 126 LY). Using data by month from here (available from 2018..not sure if exactly official) I can come up with a Q1 annualization factor:
https://graphics.suntimes.com/homicides/
Year Proj 2023
2018 586
2019 732
2020 961
2021 691
2022 665
Avg 717
Avg 665 (excluding 2020 Burn Loot Murder anomaly)
According to same source, full year 2022 was 692, so the annualization factor derived from the last 5 years would put the projected total over this threshold. Excluding the Buy Large Mansions swindle that brainwashed and killed thousands nationally, we will come in a bit short (though 2018 looks rather odd as well). Overall think this a 60-65% price is fair. Just warmed up in Chicago area so I'm expecting great things these coming weeks!
https://news.wttw.com/2022/09/01/448-people-killed-chicago-year-homicide-rate-remains-down-last-year
It's down from last year, which was down from the year before, but still elevated above the pre-pandemic baseline. I predict a continuing regression to the mean,
in combination with long-term trends showing overall declining rates of violence.