Will there ever be more Google search volume about AI Alignment than about Light Pollution, for any day before EOY 2024?
closes 2025

This resolves yes if Google Trends shows that the daily search volume about the "AI Alignment" topic was higher than that about the "Light Pollution" topic, for any day before the end of 2024.

Go here to see how they compared over the last 30 days:

Edit: this is about global search volume

Sort by:
MatthewRitter avatar
Matthew Ritterbought Ṁ70 of NO

Try swapping in “Biosecurity” or “nuclear proliferation” as established important-but-wonky topics. We’re in a bubble for thinking about AI stuff regularly and I think it’s easy to overestimate how much other people are going to search for these relatively abstract phrases, even as they worry about jobs and other more concrete things

BrendanFinan avatar
Brendan Finanis predicting NO at 39% (edited)

HenriThunberg avatar
Henri Thunbergis predicting YES at 37%

Out of 4 times that "AI Alignment" has exceeded the global minimum of "Light Pollution", three have happened since mid-March. Plenty of time for stars to align either in 2023 or 2024 IMO.

Biggest worry: What's up with the seemingly relatively consistent rise of Light Pollution in 2023? If this is the new baseline then it'll be much harder to beat than the old "global minimum" of Light Pollution.

Lily avatar
Lilyis predicting NO at 43%

@HenriThunberg global minimum looks like it was on Christmas

Lily avatar
Lilyis predicting NO at 43%

the one day when light is considered holy, and not a polluting nuisance

MatthewRitter avatar
Matthew Ritteris predicting NO at 42%

@Lily So everybody who bet yes needs to create a global meme connecting Christmas day to “AI alignment”, to get a timely spike. If you can pull that off, I won’t even be mad to lose

Lily avatar
Lilyis predicting NO at 43%

if public interest in this spikes, I think "AI safety" is much more likely to catch on as the mainstream term than "AI alignment"

HarlanStewart avatar
Harlan Stewartis predicting YES at 38%

@Lily "AI alignment" is a search 'topic' on Google Trends. It's a collection of search terms related to the same thing. Trends doesn't say what search terms are included in a topic, but it does kind of look like "AI safety" is not included, from this


Lily avatar
Lilyis predicting NO at 38%

@HarlanStewart interesting, wonder what (if any) category "AI safety" would fall under, if not alignment - doesn't look like the more left-coded "AI ethics" is a topic either

Julian avatar

@Lily I agree but I don't think this is about what term "catches on". Since it only has to be for a single day I think the most likely scenario is a public figure/major publication uses the phrase which causes a bunch of people who don't know what it is to go and look it up.

TobiasHaeberli avatar
Tobias Häberli

Google Trends only aggregates on a weekly basis, not daily?

My p(daily) is significantly higher than p(weekly).

firstuserhere avatar
firstuserhereis predicting NO at 35%

@TobiasHaeberli there's an option for the past hour, past 4 hours, past day, past week, past month, etc etc. So each day's results will be a part of tomorrow's aggregate

firstuserhere avatar
firstuserheresold Ṁ98 of NO

@TobiasHaeberli also if you want, you can just download the data... as a csv, and it will allow you to see each individual day's data

TobiasHaeberli avatar
Tobias Häberli

@firstuserhere huh, weird. I don't have this option and the .csv was aggregated on a weekly basis.

firstuserhere avatar

@TobiasHaeberli top right (1st of the 3 options)

TobiasHaeberli avatar
Tobias Häberli

@firstuserhere Oh yeah, I'm stupid and got confused with the date format. Thank you!

firstuserhere avatar

@TobiasHaeberli yeah no worries!

Related markets

How much will Google Trends interest in AI alignment change from Jan '22 to Jan '24?21
Will an AI alignment research paper be featured on the cover of a prestigious scientific journal? (2024)35%
In 2025, will I believe that aligning automated AI research AI should be the focus of the alignment community?32%
Will there have been a noticeable sector-wide economic effect from a new AI technology by the end of 2023?42%
Will some piece of AI capabilities research done in 2023 or after be net-positive for AI alignment research?80%
By 2025, will Google be in a winning position in the "AI war" against Microsoft?47%
Will I consider myself a full-time AI alignment researcher by the end of 2023?90%
Will Science's Top Breakthrough of the Year in 2023 be AI-related?49%
Before 2028, will there be a major self-improving AI policy*?71%
Will AI Impacts publish another Expert Survey on Progress in AI by the end of 2025?36%
Will a published research paper be revealed to have been written by an AI before 2025?80%
Will there be a well accepted formal definition of value alignment for AI by 2030?32%
Will an AI produce encyclopedia-worthy philosophy by 2026?36%
In 2028, will traditional Big Tech be clearly ahead of AI-specific companies in AI technology?39%
Before 2028, will there be a major REFLECTIVELY self-improving AI policy*?80%
Will AI Be Able to Understand the, "Meaning" of Questions Significantly Better By the End of 2023?62%
In a year from today, will I have a satisfactory framework for describing the epistemology of AI alignment?45%
Will open-source AI win? (through 2028)39%
Will A.I. Get Significantly Better at Evaluating Scientific Claims by the end of 2024?44%
At the end of 2023, will I believe that a rapid intelligence explosion is a plausible result of AI capabilities research, and the possibility is worth spending some non-negligible amount of effort investigating?87%