I will not bet on this market.
(2/7/2023) relevant info:
- I started actively using Manifold at the beginning of January. So far I have spent 80 USD.
- I'm finding it very fun and using it often. I'm on a 12 day streak now.
- Historically, I sometimes become very interested in things and then lose interest completely.
- I plan to charitably donate some fraction of my income each year anyways. I haven't yet looked into how donating Manifold play money works, but that could make it more likely for me to put more money into my account.
- My profit is currently negative, so I might be worse than average at prediction markets. But then again, I keep finding what seem like obvious arbitrage opportunities.
- I don't have enough experience with gambling to know how prone I am to getting addicted to it. I coincidentally played poker for money for the first time last night, and lost. I will likely do that again at least once sometime this year.
Related questions
@Harlan Any changes to this? I see you're still active, but have you payed more / plan to?
@Bayesian I've now paid $140 total to Manifold Markets. I'll probably buy at least a bit more Mana this year. I'm also probably going to buy a $400 ticket to Manifest, which I think counts for this market.
@HarlanStewart It briefly looked like the charity program would end, but now it seems to be continuing. This seems like good evidence towards me continuing to use Manifold.
I don't think I have paid any more USD to Manifold in the last month since making this market. If I ran out of Mana to spend I would, though.