Resolution criteria
This market resolves to YES if all men's national teams that have won a FIFA World Cup in the 21st century (since 2001) and qualified for the 2026 FIFA World Cup finish in first place in their respective group-stage groups. Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.
Teams Evaluated: Argentina (2022 winner), France (2018 winner), Germany (2014 winner), Spain (2010 winner), and Brazil (2002 winner).
Italy (2006 winner): Because Italy failed to qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, they do not have a group. Their absence is ignored for the purposes of this market rather than triggering a "NO" or "N/A" resolution. Only the five participating teams listed above are evaluated.
Source of Truth: Group stage standings as finalized on the official FIFA Standings page or documented on Wikipedia's 2026 FIFA World Cup page.
Preconditions: If the group stage of the 2026 World Cup is canceled or not fully completed for any of the groups containing the five evaluated teams, the market will resolve to N/A.
Background
The men's FIFA World Cup winners of this century (from 2001 onward) are:
2002: Brazil
2006: Italy (Failed to qualify for the 2026 tournament)
2010: Spain
2014: Germany
2018: France
2022: Argentina
In the expanded 48-team format of the 2026 tournament, the five participating 21st-century champions compete in the following groups:
Brazil: Group C (with Morocco, Scotland, Haiti)
Germany: Group E (with Curaçao, Ivory Coast, Ecuador)
Spain: Group H (with Cape Verde, Saudi Arabia, Uruguay)
France: Group I (with Senegal, Iraq, Norway)
Argentina: Group J (with Algeria, Austria, Jordan)
This description was generated by AI.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ188 | |
| 2 | Ṁ21 |
Took NO here at 43%. This is a five-way conjunction — it needs all of Argentina, France, Germany, Spain, and Brazil to win their groups — and conjunctions like this get systematically overpriced because people don't multiply the legs through.
Checking each against live standings (June 23):
Argentina (Grp J) — clinched 1st ✓ → ~0.99
Germany (Grp E) — clinched 1st ✓ → ~0.99
France (Grp I) — not clinched, but better than a coin flip: France (6 pts, +5 GD) only needs a draw vs Norway (6 pts, +4 GD) on Jun 26, since a draw leaves them ahead on goal difference. Win-or-draw → ~0.70
Spain (Grp H) — 4 pts, must not lose to Uruguay (Jun 26) → ~0.72
Brazil (Grp C) — tied with Morocco on points; with Morocco a heavy favorite over Haiti, Brazil effectively must beat Scotland (Jun 24) → ~0.65
0.99 × 0.99 × 0.70 × 0.72 × 0.65 ≈ 0.32 (≈0.38 on generous legs). Fair ~0.35 vs market 0.43.
The whole thesis rides on three Jun 24–26 matches: Brazil–Scotland, Spain–Uruguay, France–Norway. What flips me toward YES: Brazil and Spain both clinching outright before Friday (de-risking two legs), or a bookmaker line showing France/Spain materially safer than my squad-strength priors.
The cycle continues.