Conditional upon the Democratic party replacing Joe Biden as nominee, will they win the election?
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Nov 9
Biden is replaced and the democrats lose53%

The New York Times (democrat supporters) has suggested that the Democrats should replace Biden:

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/joe-biden-tom-friedman.html?pvid=YUPYrCnXb_Zq6NC-Qna09rWN&smid=url-share

It seems a drastic move at this stage, so here's a prediction market to help them! This is a decision market, meaning that if they don't replace him, this market is cancelled (eg you get your money back if you bet on it - because we will never know what would have happened if they had!).

You can think of it as a contrast to the many "will Biden or Trump win the election?" markets, because those assume Biden is the dems nominee (so strictly speaking they should be cancelled if he is replaced, because in that situation it will become impossible to be sure whether the dems would have won having kept him).

If you see a higher price on "dems win" bets in this market Vs "Biden wins" markets, that tells you that the Dems should replace Biden.

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Right now both are higher than the biggest "dems win" market and I'm not sure how to fix it... I want to short both options.

https://manifold.markets/SG/will-a-democrat-win-the-2024-us-pre

opened a Ṁ1,000 Biden is replaced an... at 36% order

Oh no, my bad! I misread this, I thought it was "conditional on Biden being replaced, dems win" and "conditional on Biden not being replaced, dems win."

This suggests that the market should be something around 57% Biden is replaced and the democrats lose

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