The ban on onshore wind refers to the 2015 Written Ministerial Statement that amended the National Policy Planning Framework (NPPF) by introducing two new requirements for onshore wind developments in England:
That developments could only be built on sites identified as suitable for onshore wind within local authority development plans, plans which only 11% of local governments have created
A community consultation process where an objection by a single individual can lead to the rejection of a project
The demands of these two requirements have created a de facto ban on new onshore wind developments in England with the total installed capacity given planning permission from 2015-2021 being just 2.6% of that between 2009-2014.
Lifting the ban would refer to:
The repeal of these two requirements from the NPPF
A substantial alteration to these requirements within the NPPF with the aim of encouraging greater onshore wind development in England
Wholesale reform or replacement of the NPPF which had the effect of allowing a significant increase in planning permissions for onshore wind in England
The resolution source will be official communication by the UK government or a consensus of media reporting that policy change amounts to a lift of the ban.
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I wrote a blog post setting out my thinking around this question - https://hamishlow.substack.com/p/forecasting-policy-change?sd=pf