Which side of this market limit orders harder?
8
425
Ṁ370Ṁ100
resolved Aug 3
Resolved
YES1D
1W
1M
ALL
About once per day, I'll roll a $daysleft-sided die and on a 1 I resolve this market. I'll look at the order book, multiply each YES limit order by its probability, and add them up. I'll multiply each NO limit order by (1-its probability) and add them up. I resolve to whether the first sum is larger than the second sum. Only each trader's largest-in-M$ limit order per side counts.
Close date updated to 2022-08-03 3:17 pm
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echo -n "If the rightmost digit of the hash of the next block on https://blockexplorer.one/ethereum/mainnet after I post this comment that is between 1-7 is 1, the market resolves YES because 283.05 is more than 144.86." | sha256sum
https://blockexplorer.one/ethereum/mainnet/blockId/15269689 has hash 0x36a70f87a82dc2c0f2fa96fd9c789d52ddb16de821d1b62e769e7d67fd1c99d9 whose rightmost such digit is 1. These dice just keep coming up 1, don't they?
Huh, can't view the order book while the market is closed. Oh well, too risky to open for a few seconds to take a screenshot now - I suppose you'll have to trust me or someone who remembers the order book as I did. Here are my calculations:
102*40+10*40+200*40+97*40+204*30+194*30+5*1 = 28305
40*10+33*81+33*84+24*152+23*156+20*70+1*5 = 14486
@Spindle what do you mean, did I do something wrong here? I hope you don't mean that I still need to roll dice to resolve this market on each of the remaining days - for peace of mind, I just RNG'd a 1-6 using a physical die and it came up 6, and each time a 1 comes up I can look at my notes for the order book and confirm that I resolved correctly. The way I'd resolve a "wrongfully" resolved market again, I compensate everyone who got "too little" mana last time out of my pocket. So if the resolutions are all equal, I'm in the clear.