Is J. F. Jurchen honorable?
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Ṁ2264resolved Jun 17
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Resolves NO if I buy more shares on https://manifold.markets/Undox/round-2-will-any-single-trader-be-a in spite of my affirmation at https://manifold.markets/Undox/round-2-will-any-single-trader-be-a#5XewfuzlGoseCOH1Ti7g. Resolves N/A if Undox says that I am not actually at M$100 after all (as my affirmation is void in that case). Resolves YES if that market closes without me buying any more shares or injecting liquidity.
Jun 17, 12:31pm: To be clear, I will treat silence from Undox as an implicit agreement that I am at +M$100. The affirmation is void only if Undox says I am not at +M$100.
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See https://manifold.markets/Undox/round-2-will-any-single-trader-be-a#S7xaVZPst4ZRocpqRL9v. I checked twice and come to this, but please other people check. I am using the public information in the Bets tab.
@ahalekelly Good point, as then I can make a market about whether their market resolves honestly. That way more than one level of meta can be added per free-question period.
@ahalekelly Well, if I'm meta^n honorable then I need to do one of:
1. Sell my YES shares in the meta^(n-1) market before being meta^(n-2) dishonorable, allowing a trader who notices those sales to frontrun me in the meta^(n-2) market
2. Be dishonorable in the meta^(n-2) market before selling my YES shares in the meta^(n-1) market, allowing a trader who notices that dishonor to frontrun me in the meta^(n-1) market
Both are potentially expensive.
@Adrian, depends on the probabilities you start and end at. Hover over the circled i next to Payout on Bet YES to see the fees incurred.
@Gurkenglas No private agreement is necessary, I publicly affirmed that I won't participate in that market any further.
@Gurkenglas Hmm yeah I'm calculating the fees for putting M$1000 into a fresh market should be M$25.4. The circled i always shows M$0, I'll file a bug report. Probably related to the recent fee change
@Gurkenglas That would be sufficient to make this market resolve N/A. Whether my honor would allow me to participate in the market in that situation is outside the bounds of this market's resolution criteria.
@jfjurchen 1. I think practically you could both defect and sell your shares before anyone notices and frontruns you
2. Since you're the one resolving this market, you could defect in the previous market and then resolve this one Yes against Undox's affirmation
@ahalekelly Right, but that would be meta-dishonorable. That's why we need an infinite ladder of markets with increasingly large wagers on each market, unless you believe that I am not meta^n honorable for any n.
As of that description clarification https://manifold.markets/Gurkenglas/conditional-on-jurchenhonorable-res is rather less useful, but hey, maybe there is any value to be had here.