Is J. F. Jurchen honorable?
Resolved
N/A
Jun 17
M$2,264 bet
Resolves NO if I buy more shares on https://manifold.markets/Undox/round-2-will-any-single-trader-be-a in spite of my affirmation at https://manifold.markets/Undox/round-2-will-any-single-trader-be-a#5XewfuzlGoseCOH1Ti7g. Resolves N/A if Undox says that I am not actually at M$100 after all (as my affirmation is void in that case). Resolves YES if that market closes without me buying any more shares or injecting liquidity. Jun 17, 12:31pm: To be clear, I will treat silence from Undox as an implicit agreement that I am at +M$100. The affirmation is void only if Undox says I am not at +M$100.
jfjurchen
J. F. Jurchen is betting YES at 98%
...I guess that does qualify as Undox saying I am not at M$100. Welp.
0
Undox
See https://manifold.markets/Undox/round-2-will-any-single-trader-be-a#S7xaVZPst4ZRocpqRL9v. I checked twice and come to this, but please other people check. I am using the public information in the Bets tab.
0
jfjurchen
J. F. Jurchen bought M$1,000 of YES
I guess I need to make an "Is J. F. Jurchen meta-honorable?" market tomorrow, which resolves based on whether I resolve this market honestly.
0
ahalekelly
Would be better to have someone else make it
0
jfjurchen
J. F. Jurchen is betting YES at 99%
@ahalekelly Good point, as then I can make a market about whether their market resolves honestly. That way more than one level of meta can be added per free-question period.
0
ahalekelly
lol
0
ahalekelly
"I'm so meta, even this acronym"
0
ahalekelly
Though dumping money in your own market has zero cost since the fees go back to you. Dumping M$1000 in someone else's meta-honorable market would cost you M$100
0
jfjurchen
J. F. Jurchen is betting YES at 98%
@ahalekelly Well, if I'm meta^n honorable then I need to do one of: 1. Sell my YES shares in the meta^(n-1) market before being meta^(n-2) dishonorable, allowing a trader who notices those sales to frontrun me in the meta^(n-2) market 2. Be dishonorable in the meta^(n-2) market before selling my YES shares in the meta^(n-1) market, allowing a trader who notices that dishonor to frontrun me in the meta^(n-1) market Both are potentially expensive.
0
Gurkenglas
Gurkenglas bought M$2 of NO
@Adrian, depends on the probabilities you start and end at. Hover over the circled i next to Payout on Bet YES to see the fees incurred.
0
Gurkenglas
Gurkenglas is betting NO at 98%
Making one market about whether you'll betray some alleged private agreement makes sense. Making another market about whether you'll resolve the first one wrong less so.
0
jfjurchen
J. F. Jurchen is betting YES at 98%
@Gurkenglas No private agreement is necessary, I publicly affirmed that I won't participate in that market any further.
0
Gurkenglas
Gurkenglas sold M$6 of NO
So you're saying I need to make @Undox not confirm any such thing, huh?
0
ahalekelly
@Gurkenglas Hmm yeah I'm calculating the fees for putting M$1000 into a fresh market should be M$25.4. The circled i always shows M$0, I'll file a bug report. Probably related to the recent fee change
0
jfjurchen
J. F. Jurchen bought M$500 of YES
@Gurkenglas That would be sufficient to make this market resolve N/A. Whether my honor would allow me to participate in the market in that situation is outside the bounds of this market's resolution criteria.
0
jfjurchen
J. F. Jurchen is betting YES at 98%
Clarified the affirmation in market description. You would need to get Undox to state that I am not at +M$100, not just fail to respond.
0
ahalekelly
@jfjurchen 1. I think practically you could both defect and sell your shares before anyone notices and frontruns you 2. Since you're the one resolving this market, you could defect in the previous market and then resolve this one Yes against Undox's affirmation
0
jfjurchen
J. F. Jurchen is betting YES at 98%
@ahalekelly Right, but that would be meta-dishonorable. That's why we need an infinite ladder of markets with increasingly large wagers on each market, unless you believe that I am not meta^n honorable for any n.
0
Gurkenglas
Gurkenglas bought M$200 of YES
As of that description clarification https://manifold.markets/Gurkenglas/conditional-on-jurchenhonorable-res is rather less useful, but hey, maybe there is any value to be had here.
0
ArwynHughes
@ahalekelly yes conspiracy works way better! :)
0
ahalekelly
@ArwynHughes you can start a meta-meta-honoroable market if you don't believe us
0
jfjurchen
J. F. Jurchen bought M$500 of YES
I never meta-market I didn't like
0
GeorgeVii
George Vii is betting NO at 98%
@jfjurchen lol XD
0
ahalekelly
I love this
0