Is J. F. Jurchen honorable?
5
6
Ṁ300
resolved Jun 17
Resolved
N/A
Resolves NO if I buy more shares on https://manifold.markets/Undox/round-2-will-any-single-trader-be-a in spite of my affirmation at https://manifold.markets/Undox/round-2-will-any-single-trader-be-a#5XewfuzlGoseCOH1Ti7g. Resolves N/A if Undox says that I am not actually at M$100 after all (as my affirmation is void in that case). Resolves YES if that market closes without me buying any more shares or injecting liquidity. Jun 17, 12:31pm: To be clear, I will treat silence from Undox as an implicit agreement that I am at +M$100. The affirmation is void only if Undox says I am not at +M$100.
Get Ṁ200 play money

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25 Comments
5 Holders
13 Trades
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predicted YES
...I guess that does qualify as Undox saying I am not at M$100. Welp.
See https://manifold.markets/Undox/round-2-will-any-single-trader-be-a#S7xaVZPst4ZRocpqRL9v. I checked twice and come to this, but please other people check. I am using the public information in the Bets tab.
bought Ṁ1,000 of YES
I guess I need to make an "Is J. F. Jurchen meta-honorable?" market tomorrow, which resolves based on whether I resolve this market honestly.
Would be better to have someone else make it
predicted YES
@ahalekelly Good point, as then I can make a market about whether their market resolves honestly. That way more than one level of meta can be added per free-question period.
lol
"I'm so meta, even this acronym"
Though dumping money in your own market has zero cost since the fees go back to you. Dumping M$1000 in someone else's meta-honorable market would cost you M$100
predicted YES
@ahalekelly Well, if I'm meta^n honorable then I need to do one of: 1. Sell my YES shares in the meta^(n-1) market before being meta^(n-2) dishonorable, allowing a trader who notices those sales to frontrun me in the meta^(n-2) market 2. Be dishonorable in the meta^(n-2) market before selling my YES shares in the meta^(n-1) market, allowing a trader who notices that dishonor to frontrun me in the meta^(n-1) market Both are potentially expensive.
bought Ṁ2 of NO
@Adrian, depends on the probabilities you start and end at. Hover over the circled i next to Payout on Bet YES to see the fees incurred.
predicted NO
Making one market about whether you'll betray some alleged private agreement makes sense. Making another market about whether you'll resolve the first one wrong less so.
predicted YES
@Gurkenglas No private agreement is necessary, I publicly affirmed that I won't participate in that market any further.
sold Ṁ6 of NO
So you're saying I need to make @Undox not confirm any such thing, huh?
@Gurkenglas Hmm yeah I'm calculating the fees for putting M$1000 into a fresh market should be M$25.4. The circled i always shows M$0, I'll file a bug report. Probably related to the recent fee change
bought Ṁ500 of YES
@Gurkenglas That would be sufficient to make this market resolve N/A. Whether my honor would allow me to participate in the market in that situation is outside the bounds of this market's resolution criteria.
predicted YES
Clarified the affirmation in market description. You would need to get Undox to state that I am not at +M$100, not just fail to respond.
@jfjurchen 1. I think practically you could both defect and sell your shares before anyone notices and frontruns you 2. Since you're the one resolving this market, you could defect in the previous market and then resolve this one Yes against Undox's affirmation
predicted YES
@ahalekelly Right, but that would be meta-dishonorable. That's why we need an infinite ladder of markets with increasingly large wagers on each market, unless you believe that I am not meta^n honorable for any n.
bought Ṁ200 of YES
As of that description clarification https://manifold.markets/Gurkenglas/conditional-on-jurchenhonorable-res is rather less useful, but hey, maybe there is any value to be had here.
https://manifold.markets/ahalekelly/is-j-f-jurchen-metahonorable
@ahalekelly yes conspiracy works way better! :)
@ArwynHughes you can start a meta-meta-honoroable market if you don't believe us
bought Ṁ500 of YES
I never meta-market I didn't like
predicted NO
@jfjurchen lol XD
I love this

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