This market will resolve to "Yes" if any movie originally distributed by Netflix receives a nomination for the main category of Best Picture for the 95th Academy Awards.
This market will resolve to "No" otherwise.
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What movies would qualify here? Does, e.g., RRR, count? I would think not, but this market seems too high to me. Glass Onion seems 50/50 or worse, and others (e.g. All Quiet, Pinocchio) don't seem like they should add up to 17%.
@ZacharyFreitasGroff Apparently the “All Quiet on the Western Front” reboot has been generating some buzz
@JackGaller I see. But to my knowledge, no major predictor thinks it'll be nominated.
@ZacharyFreitasGroff It's on Variety's 10th for best picture predictions - last year there were 9 best picture nominees
@JackGaller Those predictions are crazy - there’s no chance that black Panther has higher odds in best picture than Babylon.
Also, the oscars moved this year to a flat 10 nominees in best picture, as opposed to the (weird) system they had before.












