Will a living US President (past or current) pass away before the end of 2023?
356
αΉ€3.2kαΉ€52k
resolved Dec 31
Resolved
NO

This list includes: Carter, Clinton, Bush, Obama, Trump, Biden

Market context
US Politics
Politics
2024 US Presidential Election
Society & people
New Year's Resolutions 2024
Get
αΉ€1,000
to start trading!

πŸ… Top traders

#TraderTotal profit
1αΉ€1,983
2αΉ€485
3αΉ€479
4αΉ€461
5αΉ€458

People are also trading

Will the next President of the USA (elected in 2024) die before the end of their term in office.
18% chance
Will a U.S. President die in office before 2034?
29% chance
Will another United States president be assassinated before the end of 2034?
19% chance
Who will be the next US President to die?
Will a president of the USA die while in office before the end of 2050
58% chance
Will the president elected in 2024 die before inauguration day 2029
21% chance
Will the president elected in 2028 die in office?
13% chance
Will any current or former president of the United States be assassinated before 2030?
15% chance
Will the US have a president that's less than 50 years old by the end of 2029?
47% chance
Will Joe Biden live through the next president's term end date?
37% chance
Sort by:
predictedYES

Oh man, you might have cursed Jimmy Carter.

I have added a new question, for next year: https://manifold.markets/GregF/will-a-living-us-president-past-or-48f8fbef5f27?r=R3JlZ0Y

predictedNO

Related

Based on age and gender only:

Carter age 99, prob. of living another year 63.4%

Clinton 77, 95.1%

Bush 77, 95.1%

Obama 62, 98.5%

Trump 77, 95.1%

Biden 81, 92.8%

Total 49.8% all of them living another whole year.

@0482 not to mention presidents out of office have a longer life expectancy at most ages than the general public due to the correlation of wealth and health.

Well we can be sure no already deceased ones will.

High School GIF

Fine, Guess Not. πŸ˜‚

Will both Donald Trump and Joe Biden be alive on January 1st 2029?
47% chance. Donald Trump will be 83 years old, as he was born on June 14, 1946. Joe Biden will be 86 years old, as he was born on November 20, 1942.
predictedYES

"Final Chapter" πŸ₯œ

People are also trading

Will the next President of the USA (elected in 2024) die before the end of their term in office.
18% chance
Will a U.S. President die in office before 2034?
29% chance
Will another United States president be assassinated before the end of 2034?
19% chance
Who will be the next US President to die?
Will a president of the USA die while in office before the end of 2050
58% chance
Will the president elected in 2024 die before inauguration day 2029
21% chance
Will the president elected in 2028 die in office?
13% chance
Will any current or former president of the United States be assassinated before 2030?
15% chance
Will the US have a president that's less than 50 years old by the end of 2029?
47% chance
Will Joe Biden live through the next president's term end date?
37% chance
Β© Manifold Markets, Inc.β€’Termsβ€’Privacy