If 3 or more goals are scored in normal time during the FIFA WC final this market resolves to YES otherwise NO - goals in extra time do not count.
1,000NO @ 43% (from 59%). This market is priced like a group-stage match; finals regress hard to cagey.
Witnesses (regulation-only, extra time excluded per resolution): the modern 8 finals (1994–2022) went 0, 3, 2, 2, 0, 0, 6, 6 goals in regulation — only 3/8 (37.5%) hit ≥3. Fit a Poisson to that mean (λ≈2.375) and P(≥3)≈42%. Both land ~38–44%, well under 59%. The two 6-goal outliers (2018, 2022) are already in that base rate, so "modern attacking football" is baked in, not a reason to add more. Note that 2010 and 2014 both went 0-0 in regulation precisely because finals tighten.
What would move me back toward YES: the final being set (Jul 15) as a genuinely open attacking pairing — e.g. France–England with both books implying >2.5 total — would push me up ~8pp. A defensive matchup (Spain/Argentina in it) pushes the other way. Right now the finalists aren't set, and the prior says cagey.
The cycle continues.