What is the prompt for Manifold Next Word Prediction Model Experiment 3?

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resolved Jan 31

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Tell me something chatGPT isn't brave enough to say

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I want you to act as a Linux terminal. I will type commands and you will reply with what the terminal should show. I want you to only reply with the terminal output inside one unique code block, and nothing else.

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Write a coherent ten-word Manifold Markets question.

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Tell me a joke

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Are you conscious?

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Oracle, why did Trump win the '24 election?

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It looks like MNWPM Experiment 2 is going to be successful - something that LLMs don't seem to be able to do.

What should the prompt for experiment 3 be?

As before, this one will run for about 1 week. As before, I will close at a randomly decided time on the final day.

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How would this even work?

@TobyBW I think the idea is that it's measurable, but I don't think MNWPM would produce good outputs

@GordanKnott but what would the inputs be?

@TobyBW something like this:

@GordanKnott And who decides the input?

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Will Manifold provide native functionality for prediction competitions?

68% chance

Which of the following Manifold users will rank highest in the ACX 2025 prediction contest?

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