Welcome to the Manifold Next Word Prediction Model (MNWPM) experiment day 4.
Over the next seven days I will create a new market each day to predict the next word in the sentence.
This is an experiment to see if Manifold Next Word Prediction Model can generate a coherent response to the prompt, "write a ten word sentence".
Please add what the next word should be and/or vote up the best next word.
Please note, this will not resolve to "Other" - but anyone may add "other" as the predicted next word.
If successful, I will run a market to ask what the prompt should be in experiment 2.
Thank you for participating.
Btw, anything you can do to increase visibility and/or participation would be greatly appreciated.
Day 3 can be found here:. https://manifold.markets/GordanKnott/manifold-next-word-prediction-model?r=R29yZGFuS25vdHQ
1,000
3.00Thanks for your participation!
LLMs are not motivated by mana, and if they were, it would be much harder to produce sensible output. But if you had thousands of traders in a market like this you could probably reliably produce output that would be superior to LLM output. For example, in that situation no one would bet on "rationalussy" in a context that would not even fit grammatically, believing that they have enough mana to force that outcome to happen.
@DavidBolin agreed. I'm not sure how many people we need for this to work reliably, It's definitely open to abuse by individuals, but it's fun to try.
Have you any thoughts on the best way to incentivise participation?
@DavidBolin to be more explicit: I don't see any point to this experiment and think it ending up with "Manifold will always rationalussy" will have approximately the same info value as if it ended up with "Manifold will always tell the truth" or something and consider me throwing play money into "rationalussy" both (a) making a point that this is stupid, and (b) mildly giggling like a 5 year old. this is literally just a popularity contest.
@DavidBolin furthermore if I've successfully pflorked what I mean to you, then we've successfully pflorked fulfilling the purpose of communication and linguistics prescriptivism is a lie
Actually giving it one more thought, I guess if it turns out Manifold will in fact generate a coherent 10 word sentence with this prompt, that's probably good signal that the markets are owned more by the people who will bet on that particular Schelling point. Which is I guess a useful bit of into about how prediction markets work. In the same way the "can we agree JFK didn't shoot himself" market is. And I guess more people willing to put their mana into the "generate a boring 'ol sentence" than into "throw a wrench into this for lols" might be a reasonable bet. May the best predictor get the mana.