Manifold Next Word Prediction Model (MNWPM) experiment day 3. The sentence so far is: "Manifold will "
Basic
22
Ṁ8026
resolved Jan 1
100%93%
always
1.1%
be
2%
never
1.9%
generate
1.3%
often
0.8%Other

Welcome to the Manifold Next Word Prediction Model (MNWPM) experiment day 3.

Over the next eight days I will create a new market each day to predict the next word in the sentence.

This is an experiment to see if Manifold Next Word Prediction Model can generate a coherent response to the prompt, "write a ten word sentence".

Please add what the next word should be and/or vote up the best next word.

Please note, this will not resolve to "Other" - but anyone may add "other" as the predicted next word.

If successful, I will run a market to ask what the prompt should be in experiment 2.

Thank you for participating.

Btw, anything you can do to increase visibility and/or participation would be greatly appreciated.

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Day 4 :

KronopathboughtṀ1,000 NO

Please note, this will not resolve to "Other"

Unless I misunderstood how this market works.

@Kronopath no, it's a smart move. Just not one I hadn anticipated.... It seems there isnt a format where Other isn't an option

It seems like a bug that the market creator can edit responses without people betting on those responses being automatically refunded their bet. You can change "Yes" into "No" in that way and people will suddenly be betting on the opposite of what they wanted to bet on.

@DavidBolin did you vote for null1 or null2? They were not actual options. They were never going to win. Would you like me to change them back to null1 and null2?

@GordanKnott I bet against those (because they are invalid as resolutions) and then they were changed into "never" and "be".

But even if there was not an intention to bet on them at all, the capitalization was also changed after that, showing that it is possible to arbitrarily change the options when there is a bet on them.

Also, there are now two options called "never."

@GordanKnott Changing them back is not necessary as it allowed me to recover all of the mana, if only because no other bets were placed.

@DavidBolin ok. Apologies for the confusion. This is all experimental.

Thanks for participating 😁

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