How strong with Hurricane Helene be at landfall?
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30
Ṁ19kresolved Sep 27
1D
1W
1M
ALL
100%99.0%
Cat 4
0.1%
Cat 1
0.2%
Cat 2
0.2%
Cat 3
0.4%
Cat 5
0.1%
Other
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Hurricane Helene Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
1100 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024
The hurricane is about to make landfall in the Florida Big Bend
region. Timely observations from Air Force and NOAA Hurricane
Hunter aircraft showed that Helene continued to strengthen rapidly
to Category 4 status before it approached the coast, with the
central pressure falling at about 3 mb per hour since this
afternoon. Peak 700 mb flight-level winds from the aircraft were
136 kt, corresponding to an intensity of about 120 kt, which might
be a bit conservative. Radar and satellite images show numerous
mesocyclones rotating around the eyewall.
The large hurricane continues moving rapidly north-northeastward
with the latest initial motion estimated to be 015/21 kt. A
generally northward track is expected overnight, taking the center
from southern to northern Georgia through early Friday morning.
Later on Friday and Saturday, Helene should slow down considerably
while it interacts with a mid-level low to its northwest and west.
The weakening system is likely to become nearly stationary in 48-60
hours. The official track forecast follows the dynamical model
consensus.
Although the system will weaken as it moves over land, the fast
forward speed of Helene during the next 12 hours or so will result
in a far inland penetration of strong winds over parts of the
southeastern United States, particularly over Georgia, including
strong gusts over the higher terrain of the southern Appalachians.
Accordingly, a higher-than-normal gust factor is indicated in the
official forecast while Helene is inland.