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Note for posterity and clarification: Tish James' recently filed lawsuit against Trump and his company is not an indictment. It's a civil case.

More like will he get indicted before never announcing his candidacy. Dude absolutely cannot afford to run for president under any circumstances. He is going to be selling all of his possessions/properties to pay legal bills soon, forget about what the State of New York is going to seize from him in their civil suit. The guy is on track to die broke and in jail. It will go down very similarly to Harvey Weinstein. https://www.salon.com/2022/08/30/rnc-cuts-off-and-makes-him-pay-for-his-own-lawyers-in-mar-a-lago-documents-mess-report_partner/

@BTE wanna bet? ;)
https://manifold.markets/challenges/MattP/will-donald-trump-run-for-president/MV99LhcL

@MattP There is no resolution criteria. Just saying he is running is not the same filing the necessary paperwork to run. I suspect he will run a faux campaign for as long as he can but he also has to realize he won't win the nomination if he is in jail and he has no defense so why waste all the money necessary to run? His best move now is to try to get as much money for what he has and try to squirrel away the proceeds somewhere beyond the reach of the state of new York. He can't be doing campaign rallies under indictment like the one on Saturday BECAUSE THE JUDGE WILL THROW HIM IN JAIL or at the very least gag him and then throw him in jail when he violates the gag order. So yes I will definitely take this bet, let's raise it to $1000 if you want, but I want better resolution criteria.

His political career is over. Period.

Less than $100mm in liquid assets and $350mm+ in debt maturing in the next three years. He is done. https://www.forbes.com/sites/chasewithorn/2022/01/24/how-much-cash-does-donald-trump-really-have/?sh=19f551d673ed

There are rumors he hinted at announcing on 8/8 and that’s why they got Epstein’s attorney to grant the search warrant in such a rush.

If true, leans more and more likely they indict before announcement if they think it’s coming just after midterms.

@Gigacasting He can’t afford to announce. Literally.

Trump currently has $100mm+ to use for personal legal expenses that he loses access to as soon as he formally declares. Hard to imagine him giving that up when he could just run a shadow campaign and file formal paperwork only at the last minute to get on the ballot in every state.

@BTE why would he lose access to that when he declares?

@MattP Mostly cause them be the rules https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-25/when-trump-declares-for-2024-he-loses-control-of-103-million

@MattP RNC is also heavily subsidizing his legal bills but Rhonna McDaniel has already said that will end because they are not closing the primary, he is NOT the presumptive nominee.