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I haven't traded in this market, and I think it should resolve YES. I don't think the doubts raised by @Jacy represent a reasonable standard of evidence. @Jacy are your comments just academic, or do you think it would be unreasonable to resolve YES?

It would be pretty weird for the images not to be generated by diffusion models, and the fact that they're not what you get in a single prompting without any refinement is IMHO to be expected and doesn't prove much - it is easy enough to get similar images with a small amount of refinement, and there isn't any promise in the video that they were single-prompt results. The tool invites refinement, and the images do appear representative of what you can get using the tool normally.

If @Jacy objects then I'll pick two random mods for a three-mod vote as is protocol - I assume you're happy to exclude yourself as having a non-token position @Jacy, otherwise the two of us disagreeing would already be enough to cause it to NA.

@chrisjbillington I sold my shares. In my most recent comment, I was rebutting the notion that images having hallmarks of AI generation is meaningful evidence they were AI-generated in this context—not claiming that "they're not what you get in a single prompting without any refinement" is meaningful evidence that they were not AI-generated (hence saying "though of course they could have produced it..." which I thought was sufficiently clear).

In general, sure, it's >50% chance that some of the media was generated by diffusion, but if uncertain markets always resolve YES when >50% and NO when <50%, you lose the incentive for accurate market prices. We've been over this and the broader underlying disagreements before, so I don't plan on engaging with you further.

@Jacy Well I think it's substantially higher than 50%, I would agree 50% is not the right threshold for resolution of uncertain markets.

Resolving YES.

Likely resolves Yes: https://m.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=35&v=SaCVSUbYpVc

@RobertCousineau what evidence do we have that the media in that commercial was actually generated by a diffusion model? It says, "Screen images simulated" when the sequence starts, and I think simulations of app visuals are common in commercials.

@Jacy It's not 100% conclusive, but all the images shown in that clip have the hallmarks of ai-generated imagery, especially the texture on the cat's helmet at 0:51. Unless they asked human artists to specifically mimic the style of an AI, I don't think there's any reason to think these aren't AI-generated.

@Retr0id it would be pretty weird if they showed images in an AI commercial that couldn't pass off as generated by AI, so I don't think them passing off as generated by AI is meaningful evidence that they were. As I understand it, the motivation to have humans generate commercial visuals isn't to avoid the look of AI generation but to provide the visual control (e.g., fitting the color scheme to the rest of the commercial) that makes for a high-quality commercial.

For example, here's what I got when I put in the prompt associated with that cat's helmet:

It does better when you make Copilot forward the prompt explicitly to DALL-E:

compared to what's in the commercial:

The output isn't nearly as good as the cat helmet image in the commercial, though of course they could have produced it with a lot of prompt engineering, iteration, and human selection of diffusion-generated images.

I think this is a good example of why you create custom visuals for commercials like these.

@Jacy It's pretty easy to get better stuff with a little back and forth, and I think it's reasonable to expect that they're not claiming these images are what you would get off the bat, compared to being the results of a bit of refinement:

Create a logo for my fantasy football team featuring an animal wearing a helmet

Make the animal a grey cat, and just show its head and some fur from its neck, like a mane. No text.

Make it a little more photorealistic

Make there be a blue stripe on the helmet, which is textured as if covered by diamonds

And then you can click on the images and ask for different styles and stuff. I tried that but didn't really get how it worked, I think it just regenerated more variants of the same. Anyway, this came out:

Looking pretty good.

I definitely wouldn't pay an artist (except in the sense that the prompter is an artist) when knowing what you're going for you can get the colours and styles you want using the actual tool.

Edit: Clicked "art deco" in the popup you can use to ask for different styles, and got this - look, it added in the background sparklies like in the ad:

I think it's a virtual certainty that we'll see it, if only in a snippet demonstrating that a tech company is tech-y or whatever.