Will GPT-4 be the most searched model of 2023? | Manifold Markets

Will GPT-4 be the most searched model of 2023?

62

closes 2024

16%

chance

1D

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N.C. Youngbought Ṁ140 of NO

It’ll be very powerful when it’s released, but there may never be a model by that name and an equivalently powerful image or video model seems more likely to become a Thing.

Gigacastingis predicting YES at 31%

Highest peak in ‘23

Meaning more than any other model in the year 2023? Or also more than models from this year?

Gigacastingbought Ṁ1 of YES

Peak:

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&q=ChatGPT,GPT4

Related markets

Is GPT-4 best? (2023)74%

Ilya X Valmianski

Will a large GPT-4 equivalent competitor model be revealed by the end of 2023?52%

Will there be more searches for GPT-4 than for ChatGPT on any day before July 2023?2%

Will GPT-4 be public during 2023?88%

Will a GPT4-equivalent model be able to run on consumer hardware before 2024?29%

Will GPT-4 exceed chatGPT interest? (2023)6%

Will GPT-4's parameter count be announced by the end of 2023?5%

Brian T. Edwards

Will GPT-4 be Time Person of the Year in 2023?7%

(M20000 subsidy!) Will a prompt that enables GPT-4 to solve easy Sudoku puzzles be found? (2023)44%

Is GPT-4 best? (Thru 2025)26%

Will a GPT-4 quality model be trained for under $10.000 by 2030?78%

Will GPT-4's parameter count be known by end of 2024?41%

Will GPT 4.5 be announced by October? (2023)32%

Will a GPT-3 quality model be trained for under $1,000 by 2030?74%

Will GPT-4's max context window increase by the end of 2023?60%

Will I be able to use base GPT-4 at any time in 2023?28%

Will we have an open-source model that is equivalent GPT-4 by end of 2025?82%

Will GPT-5 be released before 2025?44%

Will a GPT-3 quality model be trained for under $10.000 by 2030?81%

Will GPT-5 be announced before 20244%

Related markets

Is GPT-4 best? (2023)74%

Ilya X Valmianski

Will a large GPT-4 equivalent competitor model be revealed by the end of 2023?52%

Will there be more searches for GPT-4 than for ChatGPT on any day before July 2023?2%

Will GPT-4 be public during 2023?88%

Will a GPT4-equivalent model be able to run on consumer hardware before 2024?29%

Will GPT-4 exceed chatGPT interest? (2023)6%

Will GPT-4's parameter count be announced by the end of 2023?5%

Brian T. Edwards

Will GPT-4 be Time Person of the Year in 2023?7%

(M20000 subsidy!) Will a prompt that enables GPT-4 to solve easy Sudoku puzzles be found? (2023)44%

Is GPT-4 best? (Thru 2025)26%

Will a GPT-4 quality model be trained for under $10.000 by 2030?78%

Will GPT-4's parameter count be known by end of 2024?41%

Will GPT 4.5 be announced by October? (2023)32%

Will a GPT-3 quality model be trained for under $1,000 by 2030?74%

Will GPT-4's max context window increase by the end of 2023?60%

Will I be able to use base GPT-4 at any time in 2023?28%

Will we have an open-source model that is equivalent GPT-4 by end of 2025?82%

Will GPT-5 be released before 2025?44%

Will a GPT-3 quality model be trained for under $10.000 by 2030?81%

Will GPT-5 be announced before 20244%