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Will an AI reliably score at 90th percentile cognitive ability by 2025?
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resolved Sep 17
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PALM/GPT-3 generally exceed a median mechanical turk on a variety of language benchmarks

Will an AI reliably exceed a 90th percentile score on various tests of cognitive ability?

(Resolves YES at ~1300 SAT, or ~700 subsections or comparable benchmarks of general cognitive ability—and a number of headlines saying “Yes, the AI gets better SAT scores, but no that doesn’t mean it’s intelligent” as always)

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