https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12793/amy-wax-cancelled-before-2026/

Some context: https://www.insidehighered.com/news/2022/07/19/penn-going-punish-amy-wax

My sense is that universities have gotten reasonably adept at convincing people to leave without firing them. I still think the probability of her being forced out in the next 2 years is <50%, but she's nearing inevitable academic retirement anyway, so it's not like the tail on that site is very long. Small bets only, for me.