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MANIFOLD
Will Avraham Eisenberg successfully conduct "a profitable trade" against Aave?
20
Ṁ440Ṁ6.2k
resolved Jan 2
Resolved
NO

Will Avi successfully pull off an Aave 'exploit'? (Will he end net positive in the immediate aftermath (ie. not counting court battles years down the line) )

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Close date updated to 2023-12-31 11:59 pm

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predictedNO

does lending money on aave and earning interest count

predictedNO

@AviEisenberg lending money is an arbitrage

predictedNO
predictedNO

Welcome to Manifold! @AviEisenberg

predictedNO

@GeorgeVii there was a straight and massive arb between attempt and success, implying a 500% conditional probability of success if attempted

predictedNO

Only an arb if you take both sides, surely

predictedNO

@GeorgeVii But yeah, looks like a new trader dumped all their cash into NO on only one of the markets. Bots aren't good enough to catch this stuff yet.

When does this resolve?

Will Avraham Eisenburg successfully conduct "a profitable trade" against Aave?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition