This market will have traded >M$250,000 in volume before the end of the month.
66
11
Ṁ1.6K
resolved Jun 30
Resolved
YES
Last target was way too easy. Lets 10x it Volume judged by "M$xyz bet" above the graph.
Get Ṁ200 play money

Related questions

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ1,553
2Ṁ1,436
3Ṁ205
4Ṁ121
5Ṁ110
16 Comments
54 Holders
273 Trades
Sort by:
predicted NO
Such inflation. Raise the interest rates now dammit!
predicted YES
gg
🐋 i am a whale
bought Ṁ65 of NO
Joel contributed almost all of the volume and according to his profile I think is mostly out of money. Unless he buys more with real $. Assuming Joel is tapped out, someone else can come in and bet $80k on yes to earn a guaranteed $250 profit. But this requires one person to have $80k and the returns are really small. Seems not worth unless there's someone with that much money sitting around. Are the odds of someone doing this 95%? Probably not, but it's also true that the odds of this happening goes up as more people bid the price down. So it's dangerous to bid the price down too much further than this, and unless you have $80k and want the 0.3% returns, it's also probably bad to bet on Yes.
predicted NO
@NoahKreutter Nice, good for me to buy No at 99%
predicted NO
Still very tense. Will check tomorrow.
predicted NO
After this, I am investing in NO MORE SELF-REFERENTIAL MARKETS!
predicted NO
If it’s no, I get ~M$14000
predicted NO
We should make an impact factor version of this (will 30 users bet more than M$ 1000, or i don't know) Just a way to avoid I've person skewing so much the result
predicted NO
If betting on an almost sure yes isn't exciting, try betting on whether this one or mine will reach enough volume first! https://manifold.markets/jack/will-this-market-trade-42069-in-vol
bought Ṁ50 of NO
@jack Is it really an almost sure yes though? It currently has less than half the required volume, with the majority being contributed by a single whale. While I do think positive resolution is quite likely, the current probability estimate is definitely way too high.
sold Ṁ48 of NO
@sbares Yeah, I agree that YES is too high (I'd bet at least 1% chance that they accidentally forget to put in enough trade volume before close). I've been buying NO when the probability gets too close to 100%.
sold Ṁ3,701 of YES
Where are the limit orders when you need em?
Interesting how my easier version of this market actually has lower probability currently! https://manifold.markets/SneakySly/this-market-will-have-traded-m99999
Where is the "#Dumb" tag when you need it ;p
bought Ṁ4 of NO
@GeorgeVii I gotchu fam

Related questions