This market will have traded >M$250,000 in volume before the end of the month.
66
1.6kṀ260kresolved Jun 30
Resolved
YES1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Last target was way too easy. Lets 10x it
Volume judged by "M$xyz bet" above the graph.
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| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ1,553 | |
| 2 | Ṁ1,436 | |
| 3 | Ṁ205 | |
| 4 | Ṁ121 | |
| 5 | Ṁ110 |
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Joel contributed almost all of the volume and according to his profile I think is mostly out of money. Unless he buys more with real $.
Assuming Joel is tapped out, someone else can come in and bet $80k on yes to earn a guaranteed $250 profit. But this requires one person to have $80k and the returns are really small. Seems not worth unless there's someone with that much money sitting around.
Are the odds of someone doing this 95%? Probably not, but it's also true that the odds of this happening goes up as more people bid the price down. So it's dangerous to bid the price down too much further than this, and unless you have $80k and want the 0.3% returns, it's also probably bad to bet on Yes.
If betting on an almost sure yes isn't exciting, try betting on whether this one or mine will reach enough volume first! https://manifold.markets/jack/will-this-market-trade-42069-in-vol
@jack Is it really an almost sure yes though? It currently has less than half the required volume, with the majority being contributed by a single whale. While I do think positive resolution is quite likely, the current probability estimate is definitely way too high.
@sbares Yeah, I agree that YES is too high (I'd bet at least 1% chance that they accidentally forget to put in enough trade volume before close). I've been buying NO when the probability gets too close to 100%.
Interesting how my easier version of this market actually has lower probability currently!
https://manifold.markets/SneakySly/this-market-will-have-traded-m99999