In Scott Alexander's predictions for 2022 he gives a 90% probability to this outcome.
(On 31st Jan when the list of predictions was published ETH sat at roughly ~0.069BTC)
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest
As of market creation ETH trades at ~0.052BTC
This market is a duplicate of https://manifold.markets/ACXBot/will-ethereum-be-above-005-btc-at-t
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