Will the Bridge Burn: Destiny & NotSoErudite by July 1st, 2024
Will the Bridge Burn: Destiny & NotSoErudite by July 1st, 2024
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1kṀ4542resolved Jul 1
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Bridge burn is pretty subjective, but the market will ultimately determine a definition. If Destiny says the bridge is burned (seriously) and can provide a reason, then that is enough to resolve this market.
If Destiny blocks them, gets blocked, or if one party refuses to do content with the other, this will count.
Bridge repairs will not save this market. Resolution within 2 weeks of a clear bridge burn (e.g. Brittany Simon being blocked, or MrGirl's stream ban, etc.)
Some less-clear bridge burns, e.g. Fuentes, Vaush, Hasan, Fanatic, are determined by one party's desire to do content where the other party will not. These may take several weeks/months to resolve where unclear.
In this video, Destiny put the bridge burn with Erudite at 18%.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.