Will Tesla face successful legal action (fines, lawsuits) relating to accusations that Autopilot demonstrations are/were staged?
36%
chance

Refunds, replacements, returns, etc. do not count. It must be action that comes from legal system enforcement, either successful lawsuits or fines.

Fines or other judgments in non-US countries may not be accepted for resolution, unless there are many of them (more than 3 countries)

close date will be extended if someone can prove there is pending action or likely action. Otherwise, it closes mid-year.

context:

https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/tesla-autopilot-staged-engineer-says-company-faked-full-autopilot/

https://www.reuters.com/technology/tesla-video-promoting-self-driving-was-staged-engineer-testifies-2023-01-17/

https://www.forbes.com/sites/nicholasreimann/2023/01/17/tesla-staged-self-driving-video-engineer-reportedly-says-in-latest-blow-to-autopilot-claims/amp/

Jan 21, 8:52pm: Will Tesla be fined or lose a lawsuit because of the recent claims that they faked their autopilot demonstrations? → Will Tesla face legal action (fines, lawsuits) relating to accusations that Autopilot demonstrations are/were staged?

Jan 22, 12:58pm: Will Tesla face legal action (fines, lawsuits) relating to accusations that Autopilot demonstrations are/were staged? → Will Tesla face successful legal action (fines, lawsuits) relating to accusations that Autopilot demonstrations are/were staged?

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AndrewHartman avatar
Andrew Hartmanis predicting NO at 38%

I guess I need to scuttle my original position, then? Because big companies get sued all the time, over much less serious stuff - if the only criteria is "a lawsuit" then there's probably already several and this is rated way too low.

Now, if the question is "will they be successfully sued over it?" then the percentage a smidge high, I think.

Gen avatar
Genzy

@AndrewHartman I apologise, it does need to be successful action. If you changed your position because of this and faced a loss, I will compensate

AndrewHartman avatar
Andrew Hartmanis predicting NO at 38%

@Gen Oh, nah, I don't recall what the original title was. I just noticed I had a NO position on a market that sure seemed like a sure YES bet, so I presumed I missed the fine print the first time around.

AndrewHartman avatar
Andrew Hartmanis predicting NO at 38%

@AndrewHartman Uh, but to clarify: if it has to be successful, then yeah, I'm sticking with NO.

ZZZZZZ avatar
ZZZ ZZZ

Change the title to something less misleading like "Will Tesla face legal action over accusations of staging Autopilot demonstrations in 2016?"

Gen avatar
Genzy

@ZZZZZZ If someone else came forward and said they faked newer demonstrations, I’d still count it. Any legal action relating to fake autopilot marketing would resolve this YES

Appreciate the suggestion, I’ve changed the title a bit. I don’t think it’s too misleading given the context provided in the description.