Will Guillermo Lasso be re-elected or reinstated as President of Ecuador?
resolved Jul 13

Elections are early! Will Lasso cling to power?


I will resolve this market after the results of the 2023 elections, once everything has stabalised (this is under the assumption he will never run again in the future). It will probably be two or so weeks after the election results, or after he concedes. If there is a lot of foul play etc. I will make the decision based on who is actually President after a "settlement" period.

This is why its "or reinstated", as if he becomes President again through illegitimate or arguable means, it will still resolve YES.


Lasso is re-elected in the first cycle, nobody disputes it, 2 weeks later: YES

Lasso loses, claims foul play (à la Trump), wait until settled: NO

Lasso loses, claims foul play, successful autogolpe: YES

Lasso wins, engages the military, kills everyone: YES

Ask for more if necessary. Basically just betting on who will be the president in 2 months from now, but may be extended due to extreme instability or ongoing elections/disputes.

Get Ṁ500 play money

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Genzypredicted NO

I'm resolving NO early, because he hasn't put himself up for election and as far as I can tell he's totally dipped out. I think it's genuinely impossible for him to become President now, given the circumstances.

I'm considering this "after he concedes" as written in the description. If he somehow rises from the ashes and marches into town with an army to take the throne, I'll pay out all YES holders as winners on a new market, from my own balance.