Will a member of United States congress die in 2023?
resolved Sep 29

If they are elected at any point in the 30 days prior to death, or the day they die, it will resolve YES.

House & Senate

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predicted NO

Resolves yes

@Joshua I’m not sure how long to wait to verify, but I assume this is as much confirmation as we need

predicted YES

@Gen quick, go make markets about the re election!

predicted YES

Short for theta. The market can't be efficient at both times unless there's some very specific malady I don't know about.

predicted NO

Related: More than one death market

predicted YES

@Gen That one should be roughly the square of this one

Outside view: 7/10 years with deaths in the 2000s. 7/10 years with deaths in the 2010s. 3/3 years with deaths in the 2020s. Congress is becoming increasingly geriatric so adjust upward from 17/23. Im guessing 80%

The actuarial math approach didn’t work because congressmen are a very unrepresentative sample of N year olds.

(1-0.0098)^535 = 0.005

0.98% is from the actuarial table for a 58 year old male (the average age of the house) but that is likely a huge underestimate due to variation in age. Maybe an overestimate due to SES and not being all male, but the age effect is probably much bigger

predicted YES

@JonathanRay I'm thinking this failed because having your shit together enough to win a campaign is a pretty strong filter for not going to croak within the next 2 years

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