Will a member of United States congress die in 2023?
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35k
resolved Sep 29
Resolved
YES

If they are elected at any point in the 30 days prior to death, or the day they die, it will resolve YES.

House & Senate

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predicted NO

Resolves yes

@Joshua I’m not sure how long to wait to verify, but I assume this is as much confirmation as we need

predicted YES

@Gen quick, go make markets about the re election!

predicted YES

Short for theta. The market can't be efficient at both times unless there's some very specific malady I don't know about.

predicted NO

Related: More than one death market

predicted YES

@Gen That one should be roughly the square of this one

Outside view: 7/10 years with deaths in the 2000s. 7/10 years with deaths in the 2010s. 3/3 years with deaths in the 2020s. Congress is becoming increasingly geriatric so adjust upward from 17/23. Im guessing 80%

The actuarial math approach didn’t work because congressmen are a very unrepresentative sample of N year olds.

(1-0.0098)^535 = 0.005

0.98% is from the actuarial table for a 58 year old male (the average age of the house) but that is likely a huge underestimate due to variation in age. Maybe an overestimate due to SES and not being all male, but the age effect is probably much bigger

predicted YES

@JonathanRay I'm thinking this failed because having your shit together enough to win a campaign is a pretty strong filter for not going to croak within the next 2 years

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