
Will a member of United States congress die in 2023?
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2kṀ35kresolved Sep 29
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YES1H
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If they are elected at any point in the 30 days prior to death, or the day they die, it will resolve YES.
House & Senate
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@Joshua I’m not sure how long to wait to verify, but I assume this is as much confirmation as we need
Outside view: 7/10 years with deaths in the 2000s. 7/10 years with deaths in the 2010s. 3/3 years with deaths in the 2020s. Congress is becoming increasingly geriatric so adjust upward from 17/23. Im guessing 80%
The actuarial math approach didn’t work because congressmen are a very unrepresentative sample of N year olds.
@JonathanRay I'm thinking this failed because having your shit together enough to win a campaign is a pretty strong filter for not going to croak within the next 2 years
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