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MANIFOLD
How much additional mana will be printed by the 2x trader bonuses in 7 days? (total trader bonuses divided by 2)
16
Ṁ1kṀ15k
resolved May 26
Resolved
~75,000 mana
Resolved
YES
Above 50,000
Resolved
NO
Above 200,000
Resolved
NO
Above 250,000
Resolved
NO
Above 300,000
Resolved
NO
Above 150,000
Resolved
NO
Above 100,000

in the last 7 days we printed ~76k mana from trader bonuses, so probably at least 100k, maybe much more?

  • Update 2026-05-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This market counts only the additional/extra mana from the 2x bonus (the diff), not the total aggregate. For example, if 300k total mana is printed, only 150k would count for this market's resolution.

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ok I had to update the site to allow me to reresolve, I truly apologise for how disgustingly bad the criteria were, and how poorly I communicated them. Not even I truly understood what I meant or how this was going to resolve

Definitely my worst market ever, but I guess technically resolved correctly. RIP my mana!

@Gen bonus though: you can now unresolve threshold numeric markets. Yay 🎉

@Gen I am kinda shocked we only printed around 25k additional trader bonus nominally (98k-73k). I feel like everyone, especially me was farming trader bonus like crazy

bought Ṁ150 NO

Some stats from Week -1 to Week 0:
The baseline week had 9,658 bonuses paid, M73,882 mana printed
in the first week of 2x bonuses, there were 12,101 bonuses paid. M196,888 mana printed

Δ +2,443 (+25%) +M$123,006 for resolving this market

So yes, this means:

Trading activity increased Δ +25.1%

Bet amount (daily_stats unit) increased Δ +19.1%

Markets created increased 433 -> 575 Δ +32.8%

DAU avg Δ-0.4% (did not change)

Signups Δ-11.6% (I assume this is noise)

I will probably post more stats later, over a longer period. It clearly achieved the intended outcome

@Gen oh... I was initially calculating the difference the same way you have here, but after you clarified I got a different impression. Where does "divided by 2" come in here?

@a_l_e_x I might actually just be stupid, I'll figure out what I said and reresolve lol

@a_l_e_x yeah look I have no idea what I was talking about when I said

diff / new amount

because I then also clarified to be

total trader bonuses divided by 2

which is only M98,444.

FYI I'm using 168hours before/after, not calendar days, but I'm doing it to my own detriment so nobody should complain

@Gen I will reresolve M100k to NO, but it looks like I need to fix something first

It's giving me the sum-to-1 UI so I can't pick just 1 answer to unresolve (probably because of numeric market type). This blocks me from unresolving at all

I will come back tho and do it after I push a fix

@Gen but 123k extra mana was printed, how can it resolve no

@Jack1 because for whatever reason I put "total trader bonuses divided by 2" in the title, I truly do not know what I was thinking, and I now realise why everyone in the comments was so confused by my comment.

I said

I was intending on the diff / new amount

but then something possessed me to also say "if we print 300k id count 150k for this market" which makes no sense lol

@Gen ok

@Jack1 I will take the L on this being my worst run market ever

only counting the extra diff or the whole aggregate?

@Stralor hmm I was intending on the diff / new amount. If we print 300k id count 150k for this market

If anyone was scammed by that lmk

@Gen Yes, that's a big difference. I assumed total because of your bet on 150k+. (edit: I don't consider myself scammed; I'd imagine the other yes bettors do)

@WobertqUIQz it looks like everyone is profitable who has bet (free liquidity) so it's probably fine

bought Ṁ100 YES

@Gen good thing I saw this before betting.

@100Anonymous sorry I updated title, hopefully makes it clearer