F1: Who will finish on the podium at the 2024 Formula 1 Monaco Grand Prix?
64
αΉ€34k
resolved May 26
Resolved
YES
Charles Leclerc
Resolved
YES
Oscar Piastri
Resolved
YES
Carlos Sainz
Resolved
NO
Lando Norris
Resolved
NO
Max Verstappen
Resolved
NO
George Russell
Resolved
NO
Lewis Hamilton
Resolved
NO
Sergio Perez
Resolved
NO
Other/The Field
Resolved
NO
Fernando Alonso
Resolved
NO
Alex Albon
Resolved
NO
Lance Stroll

Must finish on the podium in the actual race (not a sprint race). The race will take place on May 26, 2024. This market may not be open for live trading during the race (TBD)

Three answers will be resolved YES, unless multiple "Other/The Field" drivers finish on the podium, because that answer can only be chosen once.

In resolving any questions about unforeseen circumstances, weight will be placed on which drivers if any appear on the actual podium after the race.

This was created in response to issues with other creators, I'm trying to better understand the experience for these types of markets + experiment with subsidizing and protecting the subsidy to see the final costs.

Get αΉ€600 play money

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Seeing the post mortem does remind me to link my own market, about side bets on the Canada race.

Pushed the close time back a little, to the start of the race.

I’m interested in people’s thoughts on this format: higher liquidity, no live betting vs lower liquidity and live betting

I assume because of the time of the Monaco race, it probably is not likely to have lots of live trading - but then again it’s Monaco

@Gen Ideally you could combine them, high liquidity before the race, low liquidity during the race.

@Gen 1 of the things that make me enjoy Formula 1 is the live betting on manifold, so I definitely prefer live betting. And I'm a weird european here.

@Gen Generically, the betting odds before the grand prix can be pretty accurately determined by looking up bookie odds. It's during the grand prix you can make better predictions.

@travis Yeah, it would be cool if I could pull out most of the liquidity before the race, we talked about this. idk how possible it is, but it’s a good idea for maintaining liquidity before + live trading

@Gen Can you give us a post mortem on this and what your experience was, and any tips you have for creators? Thank you!

@10thOfficial I think the idea was good, Monaco kinda ruined things bc I left it open for qualifying and nothing changed during the race. Total loss was somewhere around 4-5k mana, but I spent 7k on subsidy and 3k on boosts bc I wanted people to find the market and I don't usually create them for f1 events. If you remove the mana spent on boosts, and reduce the added liquidity, I think a market like this with no subsidy would have lost ~500mana

I retrieved 6k in liquidity and I had about ~1500 in profit (before qualifying) where I had adjusted things to their proper odds. Had I closed before qualifying I think I would have profited when resolving, bc Max fell so far and things were shaken quite a lot.

Realistically, f1 is probably the worst sport to do this bc of the two separate odds-changing events. Another unfortunate way I could have turned it profitable is by closing pre-qualifying, then reopening after and adjusting the odds myself.

Excluding the Superbowl it's very unlikely at current volumes that creators will profit more from fees during the game than they will from recapturing their liquidity. We have kinda talked about a system where the creator can "withdraw" the liquidity rather than having to close the market -- we'll see if anything comes of that. Then I could have withdrawn pre-qualifying and essentially ran the market at zero cost.

I encourage you to try it and lmk how it goes. I will probably try it again (or sponsor someone else to try it) on something like NFL where there is no qualifying event

@Gen I should also add, I think closing pregame for something like NFL would encourage more limit orders, too. I have been burned M10k multiple times because I left limit orders on sports markets and miscalculated the start time bc of timezones or simply forgot to set the order to cancel.

edit: also, in dollar terms it seems like a worthwhile investment to maintain at least 1 market for sporting events and concentrating activity there until it is profitable. 64 traders cared about this, which is a good sign that it could be very profitable if we see volumes increase post-prize additions.

@Gen 1 market for all sporting events, if you want to close it before the sporting events resolve, does seem quite hard. You'd have to constantly be closing, liquidating and resolving.

@Fedor ah yeah, I meant one market for each event, e.g. before there were probably 10 markets for an f1 weekend, but if it's not profitable I think maintaining one is still worthwhile

I also expect volume to increase when cash prizes are available.. We really didn't have any significant bets here.

I'd also think it's worthwhile for someone to create a liquidity providing sports-trading bot that offers limit orders at a spread on these markets. There are already people buying $1000USD in mana and trading all over the place (rarely using limit orders), but we don't have enough liquidity in our sports!

@Gen I'll consider running 1 consolidated market instead of 1 for every F1 weekend.
I am switching to objective questions, so that it could be eligible for cash prizes.
Very interested in how to best run the F1 markets.