Resolution criteria

Zelenskyy received the Trump administration's proposed peace plan on November 20, 2025, and his office stated he would discuss its main points with Trump in the coming days. This market resolves based on Zelenskyy's official response to the plan, as communicated through:

• Official statements from the Ukrainian presidential office or Zelenskyy himself

• Public remarks during press conferences or media appearances

• Official diplomatic communications

Resolution will occur once Zelenskyy makes a clear public statement indicating Ukraine's position on the plan. The market resolves to whichever answer best matches his stated response. If Zelenskyy's response is ambiguous or does not clearly fit any single answer, the market reolves “other”.

Background

The 28-point plan, which President Donald Trump has reviewed and supports, is the White House's latest attempt to bring Russia's war in Ukraine to an end. The proposal could envision Ukraine ceding the eastern Donbas region and limiting the size of its military in exchange for security guarantees from the United States. Some of the proposal's provisions—including territorial concessions in areas not currently held by Russia—have previously been nonstarters with the Ukrainians. Ukraine did not take part in shaping the proposed peace plan and was informed of the broad contours but was not briefed in detail.

Considerations

The plan is still in the framework stage, and its many points haven't been finalized. Some of the points being circulated now—including some that appear weighted toward Moscow's demands—are not final, and will almost certainly evolve. European diplomats appear unhappy at the reports of a peace plan lacking Ukrainian or regional involvement, with the EU's foreign policy chief stating that "for any plan to work, it needs to have Ukrainians and Europeans on board."

❗The security guarantees attached must be formalised in a workable way, not guarantees that have been given to Ukraine in the past with countries failing to commit to what was agreed. “Just and forever-lasting peace”, this must also be formally signed and agreed to by russia.”❗

❗”continued russian global provocation” -This will be the resolution if other countries have to take drastic measures (that also be if it Ukraine) due to the threat towards their own country also. Another country joining the Ukrainian military could be a scenario. ❗

❗ “The coalition of the willing” is a group of 30+ countries ready to provide security guarantees once a peace deal is reached. If this force ramps up support significantly in a way never seen and before any deal is made with Trump then “An alternative European plan” will be the resolution.❗