Resolution criteria

The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, Europe's largest, has been under Russian control since 2022.

The market resolves to the entity that is agreed to control the plant the time of a peace deal/negotiations of ending the war. If control is shared (e.g., joint US-Ukraine management), the market may resolve to multiple answers.

❗The market will resolve “other” if, by chance another nation is given control or if the plant is destroyed with no plans to be rebuilt. ❗

Background

Control over the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant has remained one of the main sticking points in peace negotiations since Russia took control of it in March 2022. Zaporizhzhia's proximity to the front lines has sparked international fears for the safety and stability of the nuclear plant. In 2020, the plant generated nearly half of the country's electricity derived from nuclear power, and more than a fifth of total electricity generated in Ukraine.

If Kyiv regained control of the plant, it would take at least two to three years to understand what condition it was in and another three years to restore the equipment and return it to full operation. Currently, the option of jointly managing the plant with the United States is being considered.