Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to the name of the candidate officially declared the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial election in the state of São Paulo, Brazil.

• The election is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026 (first round). If no candidate secures an absolute majority of valid votes in the first round, a second round will occur on October 25, 2026.

• The market will resolve based on the official results published by the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral - TSE). You can verify the results at the official TSE website: https://www.tse.jus.br/.

• If, for any unforeseen reason, the election does not occur or is cancelled, this market will resolve N/A.

Background

The gubernatorial election in São Paulo is held concurrently with Brazil's national general elections. The governor and vice-governor are elected for a four-year term, with the winner scheduled to take office on January 6, 2027. The current governor, Tarcísio de Freitas, assumed office on January 1, 2023. As of early 2026, there has been significant political speculation regarding whether Governor Freitas will seek re-election or pursue a run for the Brazilian presidency. Because candidate slates remain fluid, "governor-elect" refers to the individual who officially wins the 2026 contest, regardless of whether they are an incumbent or a new challenger.

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