“We certainly can’t support the election of a man to the position of NATO’s secretary general who previously wanted to force Hungary on its knees,” Szijjarto said.
Current secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg’s term expires on October 1st.
I will resolve YES if Rutte takes the position after October 1st.
I will resolve NO if Rutte takes the position on October 1st (or sooner).
I will resolve NA if someone else takes the position.
By all means, chime in with feedback on the resolution criteria.
https://www.intellinews.com/hungary-threatens-to-block-dutch-pm-rutte-as-new-nato-chief-315767/
I will resolve YES if Rutte takes the position after October 1st.
I will resolve NO if Rutte takes the position on October 1st (or sooner).
I will resolve NA if someone else takes the position.
These criteria don't match the question.
If Hungary really puts its foot down and vetoes Rutte, it sounds to me this should be YES but these criteria say N/A. If Hungary withdraws its objection but Rutte takes office at a later date for some other reason, this should be a NO but by these criteria is would be a YES.
I don't know enough about NATO internal dynamics, but I'm not sure it's worth it to even have markets about someone who, all things considered, is still Just Some Guy in this respect.
@BrunoParga Imagine the premise of this market being: Rutte is wanted for the job, but Hungary will try to leverage its position to broker another couple of fighter jets.
Then imagine a second premise later: NATO pivots to another candidate for unrelated professional reasons, thus voiding the market.
Doesn't the resolution criteria fit these premises? My question is not rhetorical; I might still change the criteria.
What is the market's worth? I think Manifold traders can answer that.
Would you rather see a market with Hungary blocking any secretary-general candidate? That's an entirely different market, in my opinion. This is Rutte-Hungary-specific.