Resolution Criteria:
This market will resolve to YES if, on 30 June 2025, the X account Aella_Girl is accessible to the general public (i.e. not locked or deactivated).
It will resolve to NO if the account is private (locked), deactivated, suspended, or otherwise inaccessible to users who are not approved followers.
I will not bet in this market.
Update 2025-06-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has confirmed that the market will resolve based on the account's status specifically on June 30, 2025, not at any point before this date. The market title has been updated to reflect this and remove ambiguity.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ123 | |
| 2 | Ṁ27 | |
| 3 | Ṁ23 | |
| 4 | Ṁ17 | |
| 5 | Ṁ17 |
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@TonyGao it's not clear what time on June 30th OP ment. So if you want to unresolve it it would have to be from OP.
@Kfredric that is frustrating. I apologies, it should have been on me to make clear what time this would resolve. It was meant to be BST. I am happy to reimburse some of the mana that was lost by the No holders. Please DM me.
@lithp will resolve this by the end of June, some non-zero chance it may go back to private before the month is up.
@GauravYadav your description is very clear, but as a warning for future reference, if you really want to go on your description, you should change your title wording to "on the end of june" or "at the end of june" or something.
"by the end of..." would mean it qualifies if at any point before it is completed.
Again, your market description (along with this comment) makes it clear, but your title and description are at odds
@No_uh Ah, this discourse again! This has been a matter of persistent disagreement in various markets' comment-sections. I am increasingly suspecting that there's some sort of dialect-difference underlying it, where some sections of the English-speaking world use 'by' exclusively to mean 'before', others use it sometimes to mean 'before' and sometimes to mean 'at', and when the former group notices the latter group employing the 'at' usage they take it as a mistake rather than as a dialect-difference. Because I'm not sure how else to explain why this keeps coming up as a point of contention and divergence-in-betting-patterns.
(This somewhat suggests that it's probably a bad idea to use 'by' in either of those senses in one's market titles or descriptions, since using it apparently invites misunderstanding.)
@Tulip i don't know of any dialectal differences between the major varieties of english with respect to this (not american (or any sub versions), british (again), australian, south african, singaporean, the least goes in.
it's possible it's a confusion point for second language learners. My guess more is that people are just sloppy when they use one but mean the other, and they aren't precise when they make markets. This goes beyond 'by' or 'at' or 'on'
@No_uh I don't think this is just a second-language-learners thing! I grew up with English as my first language, in New Jersey, with parents whose first language was also English (having respectively grown up in Massachusetts and in a moving-between-different-parts-of-the-US-a-bunch-of-times-over-the-course-of-childhood context), and it never occurred to me that the 'at' usage of 'by' might be in any way controversial until I saw people taking the anyone-who-uses-it-that-way-is-confused stance in Manifold comment sections.
@Tulip I don't know any varieties of english where it has been reported in the dialect literature that 'submit this to me at 8.' and 'submit this to me by 8'
or a variation like 'the party will finish by 8' and 'the party will finish at 8' mean the same
maybe people only bring it up here bevause for markets it matters. and for most situations in daily life it doesnt matter, but i have a harder time believe people dont know the differrnce or that there exists none in their dialect
@No_uh I agree that those example-sentences are pretty unambiguous about meaning 'before' and not 'at'. They're both about momentary actions, not ongoing states. But consider "the store will be closed by 8". This often does mean "the store will be closed at 8", and would be a deceptive phrasing to use if the situation is that the store will be open at 8 but will prior to that be closed-for-lunch-break between 1 and 2.
@Tulip Yeah that's true. Hmmm not sure what to think about that. Maybe it's the nature of the object and its tendencies (states which are unlikely to change back after changing)? Idk.. you've given me a lot to consider LOL thanks!