This market resolves based on whether the front cover design of If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies by Eliezer Yudkowsky and Nate Soares (US Edition) is substantially different on release day (16 September 2025) compared to the version currently shown below.
Small additions like a “New York Times Bestseller” label or review blurbs do not count as substantial changes. The design must be meaningfully altered—e.g. new artwork, different typography, layout, or title formatting.
Only the first edition published on release day counts. Later reprints or updated editions are not considered.
Resolution will be based on the cover shown on the publisher’s official site or a major bookseller (e.g. Amazon) on 16 September 2025.
I will not bet in this market.
Update 2025-05-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The resolution will be based on the US bookcover.
1,000People are also trading
@traders I have been made aware that there are two book covers. One for the US and one for the UK. I’m slightly unsure how to best handle this given I’ve only included the US cover in the description. I’m tempted to say if only the US cover changes in the resolution criteria. What are peoples thoughts?
@GauravYadav If the UK cover changed but the US one was kept unchanged, nobody would expect a Yes resolution. I think people have been trading on whether the US cover changes (and maybe privately hoped the UK cover would also change). No objection to making this more clear in the criteria from my side.
@GauravYadav I think my YES share is based on: “that’s not a serious cover and I expect it to be replaced with something real”. So I’d be okay with a NO resolution if the one in the description stays even just in the US. Was the UK one you found always the UK cover, or was it updated to that from the one in the description at some point?
I was betting that this was just a proof — really, it’s awful — but the matching website has convinced me that the real cover is this or something trivially different.
Pity, the title and concept lend to amazing possibilities. (I’m a co-curator of bookcoverarchive.com)
@Eric_WVGG Eliezer, Nate, if you have any influence with the publishers for the paperback edition, get in touch, I know some guys
@Eric_WVGG pinging @EliezerYudkowsky because the current cover really is pretty bad, and this might slightly increase the odds of a front cover change.
