Will I win the main prize in this (second) prize drawing?

Question

I have bought close to 300'000 entries to the second prize drawing. This market resolves YES if I win the main (9'000 USDC) prize.

If I win it (or any other prize), I would want Manifold to donate my prize money directly to GiveDirectly (and show proof of payment because it's 9000$).

Manifold Markets · Answer

Almost certainly not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 2% chance (3 traders, as of Apr 23, 2026).

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