Manifold plays hangman! #2 [500M prize]
36
650Ṁ2818
Jun 20
36%
A
15%
B
16%
C
9%
F
23%
G
15%
H
33%
I
3%
J
12%
K
29%
L
14%
M
21%
N
28%
O
18%
P
3%
Q
25%
S
28%
T
20%
U
7%
V
25%
W

Word:_ _ _ _ e r

Incorrect guesses:1/6:

D,

The banner art might not be up to date!

Background Hangman is a word guessing game where players try to guess a hidden word one letter at a time. Each incorrect guess results in drawing part of a hanging stick figure. The game is lost if the figure is completed (typically after 6 wrong guesses) before the word is solved.

Resolution Criteria

  • Every day, at ~8am UTC+2 the letter with the highest % (first in alphabetical order if there is a tie) will resolve.

  • Each letter in the alphabet (A-Z) will resolve YES if it appears in the hidden word, NO if it does not appear in the word.

  • I will reveal the hidden word and mark resolutions of the letter that didn't get resolved after the game concludes.

  • The game concludes when either:

    1. The word is successfully guessed (all letters revealed)

    2. The hangman figure is completed (6 incorrect guesses)

  • Capitalization is ignored - guessing 'a' or 'A' counts as the same letter.

  • If a letter appears multiple times in the word, guessing that letter once reveals all instances.

Considerations

  • The hidden word will be in English and contain only letters (no numbers, spaces, or special characters).

  • I obviously won't bet on this market.

The MD5 hash obtained when combining the word and an unknown string of characters that I will resolve at the end of this market is: 0a674752f3830233c5270aa1430a8f7a

Linked markets:

https://manifold.markets/GastonKessler/who-will-win-at-hangman?r=R2FzdG9uS2Vzc2xlcg

https://manifold.markets/GastonKessler/will-manifold-win-at-hangman-2?r=R2FzdG9uS2Vzc2xlcg

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
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Ordered by market percentage, the top letters currently read: A LOT IS GNU PC. Coincidence? I think so! 😁

opened a Ṁ10 NO at 37% order

@4fa Well, that lasted for about 2 minutes. 😆

@mods did you set this market to "unranked"? or did the AI automatically add it, because I don't remember the AI doing it, and I don't see why this market shouldn't be ranked.

There is no "D" in the word.

@GastonKessler That means we are at 1/6 incorrect guesses, right?

@4fa Yes, I forgot to save the modification, thank you

bought Ṁ25 YES

Using a hangman solver shows that A is the best bet for the third guess

opened a Ṁ2 YES at 2% order

😁

@4fa XD I'll do it if I do a third one.

@4fa that just sounds like a call for action

Well you were right again, there is indeed a "r"

Lol love this. Can you put a space between the underscores like this:
_ _ _ _ e _
just so it's a tad easier to see/think about the word/letters

The fifth letter is an "e'!

reposted

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