Conjecture is an alignment firm founded by Conor Leahy, also founder(?) of Eleuther AI. They have officially short (5 year) timelines until doom, mostly work on interpretability, generation of new alignment research agendas via their work in Refine and SERI MATS, and convincing ML researchers and their labs that alignment is an important hard problem.

Some have expressed worry that their short timelines and high probability of doom will lead them toward advocating for more risky strategies, making us worse off in >5 year timeline worlds.

This market is, of course, conditional on Conjecture being wrong that we'll all die in 5 years. I'd like to know how much damage they do in that world.