Mystery Market 4!
4
100Ṁ77
resolved Mar 14
Resolved
NO

Mystery Markets will be judged on an objective, random criteria (e.g. a random number generator, the color of the 5th car I see after posting this, multiple stacked RNG generators, how many traders/comments a market gets, etc.). Each Mystery Market lasts for a week, and extra hints (decided on before each Mystery Market is opened) are released periodically (once a day, once every two days, etc. Depends on the market). Each Mystery Market will have different hints and resolution criteria. The final resolution criteria and result will be revealed at the end of the market. Hints will give you more information to place bets with, but will not necessarily reveal the criteria or exact probability by the end of the market. Please leave a comment if you have questions or see ambiguity in any hints. I will do my best to clear up any confusion.


Hint #1: This market's resolution partially depends on the number of traders it gets.

Hint #2: If I were to resolve now (3/8/2025 11:32 PM UTC), I would resolve NO

Hint #3: If I were to resolve now (3/9/2025 3:51 PM UTC), I would resolve YES

Hint #4: This market’s resolution partially depends on its own percentage.

Hint #5: If I were to resolve now (3/10/2025 1:42 PM UTC), I would resolve NO

Hint #6: If I were to resolve now (3/11/2025 12:52 PM UTC), I would resolve NO

Hint #7: This market’s resolution depends on whether a final value is prime or not.

Hint #8: If I were to resolve now (3/13/2025 11:42 AM UTC), I would resolve NO

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ10
2Ṁ9
3Ṁ0
Sort by:

Resolution Criteria: If the sum of the # of traders and the percentage is prime, the market resolves YES. Otherwise, the market resolves NO. For example, if the market closed at 59% and had 40 traders, the final value would be 40 + 59 = 99 and the market would resolve NO.

Hey @traders I messed up pretty bad and forgot to give a hint yesterday. I will therefore be giving an extra hint (on top of the original missed hint) sometime throughout the market.

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules