Will TikTok be meaningfully banned in the US on March 1, 2025?
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Plus
29
Ṁ2349
Mar 2
44%
chance

A law requiring ByteDance (TikTok's Chinese parent company) to sell TikTok or face a ban in the United States is set to take effect on January 19, 2025. TikTok has appealed to the Supreme Court to block this law, arguing it violates the First Amendment and other constitutional provisions. The case is currently pending.

Meanwhile, it seems like Trump might not enforce the law, leaving it theoretically banned but still accessible.

This market will resolve YES if TikTok is no longer available for download in both the Apple App Store and Google Play Store.

The market will resolve NO if either:

  • TikTok remains available and functional in the U.S. on March 1, 2025, being downloadable from at least one of those app stores

  • The ban is blocked, delayed, or overturned before March 1, 2025

  • ByteDance sells TikTok to a U.S. company before March 1, 2025, avoiding a ban

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