I’ve recently been hearing predictions of a recession or “mini-recession” before the November election. Alternatively, I’ve seen continued positive news about inflation going down.

Will there be major economic news that affects the election? The news can be positive or negative, it just needs to significantly affect the election and be new (eg. not “inflation has continued to stay low”). This market can resolve to 50% if the news is sufficiently ambiguous, and I reserve the right to resolve to N/A.

This is a vague question, so I will not bet in it and use my best judgment to resolve it. For example, I’ll be looking for prediction markets changing that is clearly linked with news, wide acknowledgment by the public, or reporting by multiple prominent journalistic sources that the news will likely affect the election (eg. in the NYT, WaPo, Nate Silver, 538, and Noah Smith). In addition, a large stock market crash would be sufficient (>10% single day drop in the S&P 500). Since recessions are declared retrospectively, I won’t look for the declaration of one, but if the public feels that one has happened then that will likely be sufficient.