https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5542466-shutdown-white-house-memo-furloughed-workers/
A draft memo from the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) is raising the possibility that furloughed federal workers may not be entitled to backpay from their time off during the government shutdown
Will all furloughed federal workers receive backpay from their time off during the government shutdown?
Resolves NO if there is reporting indicating that at least some federal workers have not received backpay by a reasonable time after the shutdown, resolves YES otherwise. Will not resolve until the shutdown is ended and workers have received backpay (or been told that they will not).
Update 2025-11-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Workers who are fired and not rehired during the shutdown period should still receive compensation for the time they were employed. As long as they receive backpay for their furloughed time as employees, it does not affect resolution if they are subsequently fired.
Market close date will be extended to remain open until the government reopens.
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Trump said that not all workers will necessarily be paid
Pressed on whether furloughed federal employees would be paid once the government is funded – in line with current law – the president suggested the federal workforce would be paid “for the most part,” but that it might depend on the worker.
@Hakari This resolves based on what actually happens after the shutdown. If Trump follows through and doesn’t pay, then it would resolve NO, but Trump often does not follow through.
@Gabrielle I hope so. But OMB seems to be in charge here and Trump has floated permanent RIF too, so I'll stick with my NO vote. If >1 people are fired and not rehired this will resolve to NO, right?
Also, do you want to extend the deadline for this market?
@Hakari Workers who are fired and not rehired should receive compensation for the time that they were still an employee, but as long as they do it’s fine if they are fired - I’m not expecting the government to not legitimately fire a single person for multiple months.
I’ll extend the deadline, thanks. This market should stay open until the government reopens.