What will be the most dramatic event on Manifold of June 2024?
Basic
26
2.9k
resolved Jul 5
100%67%
The presidential debate
·
15d
10%
Nothing particularly dramatic
·
1mo
9%
Events at Manifest/Less Online
·
1mo
6%
Controversial Prize Market Resolution
·
1mo
8%Other
·
1mo

June 2024

What will be the most dramatic event on Manifold of June 2024?

Resolves to the results of a poll held starting after the month ends. A tie will resolve equally to all the tied answers.

Anyone can add more answers. Any answers that are clearly trolling will not be polled. Overlapping answers are allowed if they are significantly different.

Last month's market: https://manifold.markets/Gabrielle/what-will-be-the-most-dramatic-even-8a0545e32889

Last month's poll: https://manifold.markets/Gabrielle/what-was-the-most-dramatic-event-on-z7dx8c3pt0

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@Gabrielle resolve?

Events at Manifest/Less Online

Nothing dramatic has happened here yet, has it?

@PlasmaBallin Not that I’m aware, I just added it preemptively.

bought Ṁ50 Controversial Prize ... NO

I don't think, "Nothing particularly dramatic," is all that unlikely this time. It was always low last month because we knew the pivot was going to be implemented, and that was guaranteed to be dramatic. This month, we don't have any guaranteed drama. And even if there's some minor drama, it may not be considered "particularly dramatic" when we just got through the biggest Manifold drama since WvM.

I was guessing this month would be "nothing particularly dramatic" until the debate, but now imo it qualifies. (spike in users, giant swings in net worth/profit, huge geopolitical stakes, etc)