Will Biden take part in the 2024 presidential primaries, if the Democratic party runs them? This would be a situation where there are presidential primaries for the Democratic party, where at least one candidate other than Biden takes part, and Biden also takes part.
Resolves as YES if the Democratic party announces open primaries and both Biden and at least one other Democrat file to run. Resolves as NO if the Democratic party announces open primaries, and Biden has not filed to run by the first primary/caucaus.
Resolves N/A if the Democratic party does not run open primaries, or if open primaries occur but Biden is the only candidate.
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@JoshuaB Hm, that's a good question. Technically this could still resolve as either YES or N/A.
@ahalekelly @MP You're the only traders who hold NO positions. Would either of you like me to keep the market open for the chance of resolving N/A?
@TobyBusickWarner I’m not actually sure how this should resolve if he dies before the first primary. (If he dies after the first primary, it would still be a YES.) Any thoughts?
@Gabrielle If he dies or otherwise changes his mind (due to health perhaps), then I think NO would be the correct answer. Now I don’t think this is likely at all but it’s not a certainty today that everything will be the same a year from now.
